Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios - and how they explore future climate change

Based on the information provided, here are the key points about the new CMIP7 scenarios for AR7:

1. Seven new scenarios have been developed to drive climate model simulations for the upcoming IPCC AR7 report.

2. The naming convention has changed from combining socioeconomic storylines with radiative forcing targets (e.g. SSP1-2.6) to simply using names based on emissions trajectories.

3. These scenarios were finalized in 2026 and initial model runs began in spring 2026, with results expected later that year.

4. The previous SSP scenarios from CMIP6 are considered outdated as they were developed using historical data ending in 2015, making some projected years already past by the time AR6 was completed in 2021.

5. Key changes include:

   • No more "baseline" or "business-as-usual" scenarios
   • Narrower range of future CO2 emissions
   • Updated socioeconomic assumptions reflecting recent global developments

6. The new scenarios aim to provide a better representation of potential future climate outcomes, including crossing warming thresholds and carbon dioxide removal pathways.

7. Detailed emissions data for the CMIP7 scenarios was publicly released in September 202

Read the full article at Carbon Brief

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